By James D. Bradbury, PLLC,
and John Luke Broussard, Texas A&M University School of Law
From 1950 to 1957, Texas experienced a statewide drought which cost hundreds of millions of dollars, required municipalities to haul water from neighboring areas, and resulted in 244 of Texas’ 254 counties being classified as disaster areas. In response, Texas created the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) to project municipal, agricultural and industrial water demand and to propose suggestions to meet that demand.
The TWDB released its draft 2027 State Water Plan on April 16. The plan is updated every five years and uses data and projections to advise the Texas Legislature on potential approaches to water challenges and policy. Many groups are very interested in this plan, and Texas agriculture will be directly impacted.
The 2027 plan projects Texas’ population to increase from 34.2 million to 52.3 million by 2080. This growth is apparent in the water demand projections; municipal uses are expected to demand 8,825,472 acre-feet by 2080 and overtake irrigation as Texas’ highest consumer of water by 2060. The competition between agricultural irrigation and municipal uses is deeply intertwined within these projections and a primary driver in the anticipated growth. In comparison, livestock demand (which already has a relatively small contribution to overall demand) is only expected to grow by about 15,000 acre-feet.
Despite the projected population growth, the plan anticipates an overall decline in the water supply of about 10%, primarily due to decreases in groundwater availability of 20% in 2080. This is a concerning reality.
In the event of drought, there is a projected 9,000 acre-feet shortage for livestock use. For irrigation use, the projected shortfalls are extreme. By 2030, even if all the plan’s recommendations are implemented, it is projected that 2,246,993 acre-feet will no longer be available for irrigation use. The plan projects that irrigation uses will decline in the state.
Regional planning groups submitted hundreds of recommendations for regional water plans, including designating several sites across the state as unique reservoir sites, establishing a statewide groundwater well-identification system, and developing a socioeconomic analysis tool in joint groundwater planning. Some of the suggestions, like new reservoir constructions, are costly, will take time and raise other issues of concern for agriculture, including inundation of rural lands.
The plan emphasizes that maintaining the status quo is not an option, and failure to implement the TWDB’s suggestions could cost $91 billion in economic damage by 2030 and $177 billion by 2080.
Texas has already taken drastic steps to conserve water in areas facing drought conditions. The Edwards Aquifer Authority has reduced the well-withdrawal rate in some areas to as low as 44% for irrigation and municipal purposes. Corpus Christi is dealing with its own water crisis right now as well; water use has been restricted for over a year, and a Level 1 Water Emergency is expected by September.
Outside of Texas, states like Nebraska have placed moratoriums on well drilling in areas above the Ogallala Aquifer. In the case of a drought envisioned by the plan, Texas communities may have to take more drastic actions, which could carry significant implications for landowners and Texas agriculture. Notably, the Texas Property Code allows condemnation of private water rights under certain conditions.
Texas is facing significant population growth and increasing demands for water at the same time it is experiencing groundwater depletion in some of its largest aquifers and prolonged droughts in multiple areas statewide. The strain on water will cause major disruptions across Texas but none more acutely than for agriculture. It will take time and money (nearly $174 billion would be required to implement the plan’s recommended projects) to prepare Texas for its future and the next major drought. But inaction will cost much more than the alternative.
Policymakers have an important opportunity to protect Texas water and the industries, like Texas agriculture, that depend on it, and the draft 2027 State Water Plan provides important guidance to help Texas grow into a successful future.
