Around the Texas Capitol: New redistricting maps influencing legislative elections

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Note: Content below was posted and current as of Nov. 19, 2021

Around the Texas Capitol: New redistricting maps influencing legislative elections

By Lauren Fairbanks, Shayne Woodard and J Pete Laney
TAD Governmental Affairs

The Texas Legislature’s third called special session gaveled out on Oct. 19 after passing most of Gov. Greg Abbott’s agenda items. In his statement following adjournment, he applauded lawmakers for their work, suggesting he was satisfied with the final outcome. While this doesn’t entirely rule out additional special sessions in the future, for now it appears that legislators are headed back to their districts for the first time in almost five months.

We’ve since seen both campaign announcements, and what could become a record number of legislators declining to seek re-election. More on that later in this update.

Some political announcements have been made based on one of the most notable achievement of the special session – the adoption of new House, Senate and Congressional district maps as the result of redistricting. The redistricting process occurs in the Legislature every 10 years after new census data is released. As always, the redistricting debate – which determines which political party a district should favor – was fierce.

But adoption has cleared the way for the state’s primary and general elections to move forward as scheduled. The filing period for the March 1 primary elections runs Nov. 13 – Dec. 13. Several retirement announcements have been made on the heels of final approval. Both the primary and general elections will be very active ones, with the possibility of nearly 40 newly elected members of the Legislature going into the next legislative session in January 2023.

District lines do not officially change until then, so your representatives will remain the same right now. However, candidates for the upcoming primary and general elections in 2022 will be running for office in the newly drawn districts. You can visit the Texas Tribune’s website to input your address and determine what districts you will be in under the new boundaries.

As has been the trend in recent history, redistricting legal battles have already begun. One early lawsuit claims that the new districts unfairly and illegally discriminate against voters of color. It’s not unusual for some redistricting plans to end up in state or federal court, and these types of court challenges can take years. For the past decade, the state has dealt with the legal implications of the 2011 redistricting maps that ended up being rejected by the federal government.

In the Texas Senate, the biggest change to rural representation was to Senate District 31, currently represented by Sen. Kel Seliger (R-Amarillo). That district has historically been anchored by the Amarillo area. It will now pull a larger portion of its population from the Midland/Odessa area. Seliger announced in October he will not run for re-election in this new district.

Under the new Texas House map, a handful of rural districts were combined, and even more of those districts saw their included counties drastically shifted. Many incumbent rural legislators who decide to run for re-election will have to adjust their campaign plans to account for meeting new constituents in new counties they haven’t previously represented. In most instances where incumbent rural legislators have been paired, at least one of those members has announced their intent to retire from the Legislature.

Here’s a look at the new configurations for each legislative chamber:

Texas Senate
Find the full Texas Senate redistricting plan map here.

Currently, the Senate has 18 Republicans and 13 Democrats. Under the new districts, the Republican majority is expected to increase to 19 and could possibly increase to 20. In 2020, Republican Donald Trump won 16 districts and Democrat Joe Biden won 15 districts. In 15 districts, the election was competitive, with neither candidate winning by 10 percentage points. If the 2020 elections were held after redistricting, Trump would have won 19 districts and Biden would have won 12 districts. In 16 districts, the election would have been competitive, with neither candidate winning by 10 percentage points.

• SD 10 (Powell) changed from a Democratic district that Biden carried with 53.13% of the vote in 2020 to a Republican district that Trump carried in 2020 with 57.2% of the vote.
• SD 27 (Lucio, Jr.) changed from a Democratic district that Biden carried with 57.33% of the vote in 2020 to a “swing” (Republican opportunity) district that Biden only carried with 51.75% of the vote.
• Republican numbers increased to shore up SD 5 (Schwertner), SD 7 (Bettencourt), SD 8 (Paxton), SD 9 (Hancock), SD 17 (Huffman) and SD 25 (Campbell) for the Republicans.
• Democratic numbers increased to shore up SD 16 (Johnson), SD 19 (Gutierrez), SD 20 (Hinojosa), and SD 21 (Zaffirini) for the Democrats.
• The Republican district that changed the most in the Republican’s favor is SD 8 (Paxton), which changed from a district that Biden carried with 51.32% of the vote in 2020 to a district that Trump carried in 2020 with 55.14% of the vote.
• The Democratic district that changed the most in the Democrat’s favor is SD 16 (Johnson), which changed from a district that Biden carried with 56.03% of the vote in 2020 to a district that Biden carried with 64.37% of the vote. Also, the new district is almost a Hispanic majority district (49.3% Hispanic).

Texas House
Find the full Texas House redistricting plan map here.

The House’s 150 seats are currently divided among 84 Republicans and 66 Democrats. In 2020, Trump won 76 districts and Biden won 74 districts. In 60 districts, the election was competitive, with neither candidate winning by 10 percentage points. If the 2020 elections were held after redistricting, Trump would have won 85 districts and Biden would have won 65 districts. In 54 districts, the election would have been competitive, with neither candidate winning by 10 percentage points.

• There are 21 “swing” or Republican-leaning districts that Trump won with less than 55% and could be considered Democratic-opportunity districts.
• There are 5 “swing” or Democratic-leaning districts that Biden won with less than 55% and could be considered Republican-opportunity districts.
• Republican numbers increased to shore up the following districts for the Republicans:
  HD 14 (Raney), HD 23 (Middleton), HD 26 (Jetton), HD 28 (Gates), HD 29 (Ed Thompson), HD 32 (Hunter), HD 64 (Stucky), HD 66 (Shaheen), HD 67 (Leach), HD 85 (Stephenson), HD 93 (Krause), HD 94 (Tinderholt), HD 96 (Cook), HD 97 (Goldman), HD 99 (Geren), HD 106 (Patterson), HD 108 (Meyer), HD 126 (Harless), HD 129 (Paul) and HD 150 (Swanson).
• Democratic numbers increased to shore up the following for the Democrats:
  HD 34 (Herrero), HD 35 (Longoria), HD 38 (Lucio, III), HD 45 (Zwiener), HD 47 (Goodwin), HD 74 (Eddie Morales), HD 105 (Meza), HD 107 (Neave), HD 113 (Bowers), HD 114 (John Turner), HD 117 (Cortez), HD 134 (Ann Johnson), HD 135 (Rosenthal), HD 136 (Bucy), HD 44 (Mary Ann Perez) and HD 149 (Vo).
• HD 9 (Paddie) is a completely new heavily Republican district composed of Angelina, Houston, Polk, San Augustine, Trinity and Tyler counties that Trump carried with 75.93% of the vote. Note: Rep. Trent Ashby (R-Lufkin) now lives in this new House District 9.
• HD 13 (Leman) is a completely new district composed of Bosque, Falls, Freestone, Hill Leon, Limestone and McLennan (23%) counties that Trump carried with 71.03% of the vote.
• HD 19 (White) is a completely new district composed of Blanco, Burnet, Gillespie, Kendall and Travis (6%) counties that Trump carried with 69.04% of the vote. Note: Reps. Kyle Biedermann (R- Fredericksburg) and Terry Wilson (R-Granite Shoals) currently reside in this newly drawn district.
• HD 31 (Guillen) changed from a “swing” district to a Republican district. In the 2020 election, Trump got 62.07% of the vote in the new district compared to 56.14% in the current district.
• HD 37 (Dominguez) changed from a Democratic district to a “swing” Republican-opportunity district. In the new district, Biden got 50.57% of the vote compared to 58.03% for Biden in the current district. Note: Rep. Alex Dominguez (D-Brownsville) currently resides in the newly drawn HD 38.
• HD 52 (Talarico) changed from a leaning-Democratic district to a “swing” Republican-opportunity district. In the new district, Trump got 50.98% in the 2020 election compared to 53.56% for Biden in the current district. Note: Rep. James Talarico (D-Round Rock) has announced that he will seek re-election in House District 50 being vacated by Celia Israel (D-Austin).
• HD 54 (Buckley) changed from a 50/50 “swing” district to a Republican-leaning “swing” district. In the new district, Trump got 52.4% in the 2020 election compared to the current district where Trump got 48.98% and Biden took 48.85%.
• HD 55 (Shine) went from a solid Republican district to a leaning-Republican “swing” district. In the new district, Trump got 53.88% in the 2020 election compared to Trump’s 61.93% in the current district.
• HD 57 (Ashby) is a completely new Republican-leaning district in Denton County that Trump carried with 55.78% of the vote. Note: Ashby (R-Lufkin) now lives in the new House District 9.
• HD 61 (Phil King) is a completely new Republican-leaning district in Collin County that Trump carried with 53.03% of the vote.
• HD 63 (Parker) went from a solid Republican district to a Republican-leaning “swing” district still in Denton County. In the new District 63, Trump won with 52.01%. In the current District 63, Trump won with 61.46% of the vote.
• HD 65 (Beckley) went from a Democratic-leaning district to a Republican-leaning district still in Denton County. In the new District 65, Trump won with 53.41% of the vote. In the current District 65, Biden won with 54.52% of the vote.
• HD 70 (Sanford) went from a Republican district to a Democratic-leaning district still in Collin County. In the new District 70, Biden won with 54.65% of the vote. In the current District 70, Trump won with 47.14% of the vote.
• House District 76 (Claudia Ordaz Perez) is a completely new Democratic district in Fort Bend County that Joe Biden won with 60.6% of the vote. Note: Rep. Ordaz Perez (D-El Paso) is now paired with Rep. Lina Ortega (D-El Paso) in new House District 77.
• HD 80 (Tracy King) went from a leaning-Democratic district to a leaning-Republican district. In the new District 80, Trump won with 51.64% of the vote. Biden carried the current district with 53.3% of the vote.
• HD 92 (Cason) went from a 50/50 district to a solid Democratic district that Biden carried in 2020 with 61.22% of the vote.
• HD 102 (Button) went from a leaning-Democratic district that Biden carried with 53.63% of the vote to a new 50/50 district where Trump and Biden broke even.
• HD 118 (Lujan) went from a traditionally Democratic district that Biden carried with 56.16% of the vote to a new “swing” district that Biden barely carried with 50.62% of the vote. Note: Lujan, a Republican, won a special election run-off on Nov. 2 to fill the unexpired term of Leo Pacheco (D-San Antonio), who resigned.
• HD 121 (Allison) went from a Democratic-opportunity district to a Republican-opportunity district but is still in the “swing” category. In the new district, Trump beat Biden by 50.41% to Biden’s 48.11%. In the current District 121, Biden beat Trump by almost the same margin.
• HD 132 (Schofield) went from a 50/50 district to a Republican district that Trump won with 55.6% of the vote compared to Trump’s 48.52% in the current district.
• HD 133 (Murphy) went from a “swing” district that Trump carried with 51.43% of the vote to a “swing” district the Trump carried with 50.3% of the vote.
• HD 138 (Hull) went from a “swing” district with a Democratic advantage to a “swing” district with a Republican advantage. Trump carried the new district with 52.02% of the vote. In the current HD 138, Biden won with 51.49% of the vote.

Congress
Find the full Texas Congressional redistricting plan map here.

The Texas Congressional delegation currently includes 23 Republicans and 13 Democrats. Under the new plan, there are two Republican-opportunity districts – CDs 15 and 28 – and one Democratic-opportunity district, CD 23. Based on population growth, Texas is getting two new congressional districts. The new CD 37 is a Democratic district anchored in the Austin area, and the new CD 38 is a Republican district anchored in the Houston area. In 2020, Trump won 22 districts and Biden won 14 districts. In 18 districts, the election was competitive, with neither candidate winning by 10 percentage points. If the 2020 elections were held after redistricting, Trump would have won 25 districts and Biden would have won 13 districts. In 13 districts, the election would have been competitive, with neither candidate winning by 10 percentage points.

• The Republican numbers increased to shore up CD 2 (Crenshaw), CD 3 (Taylor), CD 10 (McCaul), CD 14 (Weber), CD 17 (Sessions), CD 21 (Roy), CD 22 (Nehls), CD 24 (Van Duyne), CD 25 (Williams), CD 26 (Burgess) and CD 31 (Carter) for the Republicans.
• The Democratic numbers increased to shore up CD 7 (Fletcher), CD 32 (Allred) and CD 34 (Vela).
• CD 15 (V. Gonzalez) is a “swing” district that becomes slightly more Republican. In the new district, Trump got 50.93% in the 2020 Presidential election and Biden got 48.05; compared to the current district where Trump got 48.49% to Biden’s 50.37%.
• CD 23 (T. Gonzales) is a “swing” district that becomes slightly more Republican. In the new district, Trump got 52.91% in the 2020 presidential election and Biden got 45.77%; compared to the current district where Trump got 50.22% to Biden’s 48.47%.
• CD 28 (Cuellar) is a “swing” district that becomes slightly more Democratic. In the new district, Biden got 52.84% in the 2020 presidential election; compared to the current district where Biden got 51.56%.
• The new CD 37 is a heavily Democratic district anchored in the Austin area. In the 2020 presidential election, Biden carried it with 75.21% of the vote. In the 2018 U.S. Senate race, Beto O’Rourke carried it with 77.76% of the vote.
• The new CD 38 is a Republican district anchored in the Houston area. In the 2020 presidential election, Trump carried it with 58.37% of the vote. In the 2018 U.S. Senate race, Ted Cruz carried it with 59.81% of the vote.

ELECTION ROUNDUP

Texas House District 118 Special Election Runoff

 A Democratic seat was flipped Republican in the Nov. 2 HD 118 special election runoff to fill the seat recently vacated by Rep. Leo Pacheco (D-San Antonio), who resigned to take a teaching position at San Antonio College. The runoff was held following a five-candidate special election. Republican John Lujan defeated Democrat Frank Ramirez in a south San Antonio district that had historically been considered Democratic-friendly. Lujan received 51.24% of the vote to Ramirez’s 48.76%.

Governor

Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso) has announced his candidacy for governor, ending months of speculation that he would enter the race. O’Rourke previously ran for the U.S. Senate in 2018 against incumbent Ted Cruz and for president in 2020. On the Republican side, Gov. Greg Abbott is so far being challenged by former Texas Sen. Don Huffines and former Texas GOP Party Chairman Allen West. 

Lieutenant Governor

The Democratic field for lieutenant governor is getting crowded. Following last month’s announcement from Matthew Dowd, Mike Collier and Texas Rep. Michelle Beckley of Carrollton also have entered the race in the Democratic primary. Collier came within 400,000 votes of unseating Patrick in 2018.

Texas House District 31

Incumbent Rep. Ryan Guillen (D-Rio Grande City) was joined by Gov. Abbott and House Speaker Dade Phelan to announce that he would be running for re-election in HD 31 but is changing political parties. Redistricting made his district more Republican leaning. In the 2020 election, Trump got 62.07% of the vote in the new district compared to 56.14% in the current district. Guillen was the least liberal Democrat in the Texas House this year according to one ranking of lawmakers.

Retirement Announcements

A number of current House and Senate members have announced they would not seek reelection in the months following the regular session. We have included several of those announcements in past reports but wanted to include a complete list for your reference. New additions to the list are bolded.

• Texas Senate (4 total)
  • SD 12: Jane Nelson (not seeking reelection)
  • SD 24: Dawn Buckingham (Land Commissioner candidate)
  • SD 27: Eddie Lucio, Jr. (not seeking reelection)
  • SD 31: Kel Seliger (not seeking reelection)

• Texas House (21 total)
  • HD 9: Chris Paddie (not seeking re-election)
  • HD 13: Ben Leman (not seeking re-election)
  • HD 17: John Cyrier (not seeking re-election)
  • HD 19: James White (Agriculture Commissioner candidate)
  • HD 22: Joe Deshotel (not seeking re-election)
  • HD 37: Alex Dominguez (SD 27 candidate)
  • HD 38: Eddie Lucio III (not seeking re-election)
  • HD 50: Celia Israel (Exploratory, City of Austin mayor candidate)
  • HD 51: Eddie Rodriguez (CD 35 candidate)
  • HD 61: Phil King (SD 10 candidate)
  • HD 63: Tan Parker (SD 12 candidate)
  • HD 65: Michelle Beckley (not seeking re-election)
  • HD 70: Scott Sanford (not seeking re-election)
  • HD 73: Kyle Biedermann (not seeking re-election)
  • HD 84: John Frullo (not seeking re-election)
  • HD 93: Matt Krause (Attorney General candidate)
  • HD 114: John Turner (not seeking re-election)
  • HD 122: Lyle Larson (not seeking re-election)
  • HD 127: Dan Huberty (not seeking re-election)
  • HD 133: Jim Murphy (not seeking re-election)
  • HD 147: Garnet Coleman (not seeking re-election)

AROUND AUSTIN

October 11. Gov. Greg Abbott issued an executive order stating that no entity in Texas can compel receipt of a COVID-19 vaccination by any individual, including an employee or consumer, who objects to such vaccination for any reason of personal conscience, based on a religious belief, or for medical reasons, including prior recovery from COVID-19. Here is a link to the governor’s proclamation (GA-40). Opposing the measure is 35 statewide business groups, who issued a statement saying as much.

October 18. Attorney General Ken Paxton announced the formation of his 2021 Texas Election Integrity Unit, which is a concentrated effort to devote agency lawyers, investigators, support staff, and resources to ensuring the local election season – which began with early voting on Oct. 18 – is run transparently and securely. The Integrity Unit’s primary function is to serve as a focused resource to both election officials and the public. The agency will also monitor a public email address to receive information about alleged violations of the Texas Election Code. Paxton leads an Election Integrity Division year-round. But this 2021 Unit is a dedicated group specially tasked with overseeing the 2021 election season. It is a follow-on program from 2020’s Ballot Fraud Intervention Team.

October 21. The Public Utility Commission of Texas adopted a new rule related to the weather emergency preparedness of power generators and utilities in Texas. The first of two phases in the process, the rule compels generator and utility compliance with winter weather readiness recommendations. Affected companies must also attest to the repair of any known, acute issues that arose from the February 2021 storm event before the end of the year.

October 21. Abbott appointed John Scott — a Fort Worth attorney who briefly represented former President Donald Trump in a lawsuit challenging the 2020 Pennsylvania election results — as Texas’ new Secretary of State.

October 22. Texas’ U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz and John Cornyn sent a letter to President Joe Biden in support of Abbott’s appeal of Biden’s denial of a federal emergency declaration at the U.S.-Mexico border. Abbott has sent thousands of National Guard troops to the border, but the senators argue that greater assistance is necessary. They also cited COVID-19 concerns and fentanyl distribution as reasons Biden should reconsider the declaration.

November 2. In our last Dairy Dispatch, we included a detailed analysis of the constitutional amendments that were on the ballot. Voters approved all eight of the amendments.

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